Thunder

Earning the number one seed in the West after an incredible improvement for the second year in a row. Their ability to play a true five out scheme while not compromising on defense has proven a great compliment to Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to get to create advantages off the dribble and finish at the rim. Alowing them to take advantage of the Pelican’s biggest defensive weakness, rim protection. I don’t see any reason to change up the gameplan now on offense.

Fortunately for the Thunder, Williamson will be sidelined for at least two weeks, relieving concerns about their ability to defend him with a smaller front court. With Holmgren demonstrating effective rim protection, the team may not need to use intricate or unconventional strategies to counter the Pelicans’ offense. However, there is a potential concern about Valanciunas overpowering Holmgren at the rim, resulting in second chance opportunities and drawing numerous fouls that could disrupt the Thunder’s lineups.

Pelicans

The Pelicans certainly have their work cut out for them, without Williamson Ingram and McCollum to handle most of the on-ball creation, trying to attack a defense that is well set up to defend them. I would try and attack Holmgren, put him to the test and see if his regular season performance was just a fluke or if it was real. Using Valanciunas’ physical advantages could be a potential advantage that could allow to Pelican’s to gain some quick and easy points, and potentially take away their offensive power by forcing them to play a more physical center, but one who can’t shoot the same way Holmgren does.

While Williamson being out is a major problem on offense, arguably it’s a benefit on the defensive end. Playing Murphy gives them an option to guard Williams and keep Ingram on Dort or Giddey and out of the main actions. However, the change still doesn’t do anything to help their poor rim protection, especially against a team like the Thunder who thrive attacking the rim out of a five outset. The only thing I could think of doing is playing screens and handoffs extremely aggressively by blitzing the ball and bringing help as soon as possible to stop them from getting all of the way to the rim and force them to shoot a lightly contested long two or pass out to someone outside the three-point line. This of course relies on the Thunder’s secondary players missing their shots, with Giddey I can see it but Dort, Williams, and Holmgren it would take a lot of luck for this strategy to result in a positive outcome.

Who do I think will win?

The Thunder. Even if Williamson was healthy the Pelican’s just have no way to stop the thunder offense without a massive amount of luck. They also have no way to answer the Thunder’s offense with a massive offensive performance of their own without extreme luck and a great scheme. I could see the Pelicans taking one game, getting really hot from three and Valanciunas able to dominate inside. But you need to win four games to win the series, and I trust the talent and coaching of the Thunder too much to see anything other than a lopsided series in the Thunder’s favor.