Analyzing Rockets’ Key Trades: Building a Winning Team

As the 2025-26 NBA season comes to a close the Houston Rockets are skirmishing for the 3rd best record in the conference with the Nuggets, Lakers, and the Timberwolves. The team fighting for a high playoff seed will bring back a feeling of déjà vu for many fans who remember the late 2010s Rockets. However, nearly a decade later, new players and coaches are bringing their own unique skill sets to the table, contributing to a winning team.

Despite the changes to the team, a throughline can be drawn from this team, back to the last great Rockets team from the last decade. Specifically, one trade had ripple effects that made this team who they are today.

A glimpse into the past

But first we need to go back, all the way to May 28th, 2018, Western Conference Finals Game 7, Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets. The Rockets pushed the dynasty Warriors to a game 7 in Houston, led by elite shooting guard James Harden and veteran point guard Chris Paul. They were on the cusp of doing something no other team in the western conference had done since the 2014 playoffs, eliminate the Warriors in the playoffs.

However, there was one issue, Chris Paul injured his hamstring in game 5 and was eventually ruled out for games 6 and 7. Losing game 6 at Golden State hurt, but going back to Houston for game 7 was their chance to come out on top on their home floor. However, it wasn’t the injury to Paul that would have the biggest impact on the team in game 7, it was the Rockets dreadful shooting from 3 as they shot only 15.9% on 44 attempts for the game, leading to a 101 – 92 victory for the Warriors.

Even at the time, the team knew that was their best shot at dethroning Golden State. From there the Rockets would proceed to fall short in next year’s playoffs, then in the 2019-20 season they would trade Paul for Russell Westbrook. Despite the trade they still didn’t have the impact they did before and realized they needed to move on.

Year 0: The Teardown

In the offseason before the 2020-21 season James Harden made it clear he was unhappy on the team and wanted to be traded. Realizing that without the full buy-in of Harden, there wasn’t a future for this iteration of the team, the Rockets started selling off assets. Trading Covington to the Trailblazers for Trevor Ariza, Isaiah Stewart, and a lottery protected first round pick in 2021, then 2 days later trading Ariza and Stewart for a protected 2021 first round pick.

The first major domino of the rebuild toppled on Dec 2nd, when Westbrook was sent to the Wizards for John Wall and a protected 2023 first round pick. Later that season the second shoe fell, Harden was traded to the Nets for a haul of draft picks, specifically a 2021 1st round pick swap from the Nets, a 2022 1st round pick from the Bucks, a 2022 Nets 1st, a 2023 Nets swap, a 2024 Nets 1st round pick, a 2025 Nets swap, a 2026 Nets 1st round pick, and lastly a 2027 Nets swap. That next season they would trade PJ Tucker and the 2022 Bucks 1st round pick from the Harden trade for the 2021 and 2023 Bucks 1st round picks.

Here’s a breakdown of their haul of assets from these trades.

The rebuild Begins

With most major assets sold off and a new haul of draft picks, the Rockets now progress to the most difficult part of a rebuild, getting those selections right.

Year 1: 2021-22

Starting with the 2021 draft, the Rockets had 3 first round picks. Their own pick at #2, the #23 pick from the Covington trade, and the #24 pick from the Tucker trade. They declined the swap option with the Nets for their 1st, since the Rockets got the lower of the two. With one of the worst records in the league the Rockets received the #2 overall pick, an opportunity to draft a potential star for the next great Rockets team. But throughout the draft process they became infatuated with another prospect, Alperen Sengun. Rockets GM Rafael Stone had this to say regarding their evaluation of Sengun’s potential.

“We traded two first-round picks to get him, so we wouldn’t have done that if we didn’t see somebody who could be this type of impactful player. Alperen, he was the MVP of that league at 18. The only two people who had comparable success in top-tier leagues are Jokic and Luka. So I thought that was a good indicator and just watched the film, like he just does special stuff.”

The Rockets made the move to go and get their guy, trading the 2022 protected Pistons 1st round pick from the Ariza and Stewart trade as well as the Wizards protected 2023 first from the Westbrook trade to the Thunder to get the #16 pick and draft Sengun.

A quiet regular season followed, they made a few moves on the margins for reserve players, salary relief, and second round picks. They already made their splash of the season getting Sengun, confident they had two important pieces for the future of the franchise.

Year 2: 2022-23

By Erik Drost – https://www.flickr.com/photos/edrost88/51761119748/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=137891654

The Rockets again with one of the worst records in the league last season land another high pick in the lottery, the #3 overall pick, drafting Jabari Smith. From the Harden trade they also have the Net’s 1st round pick outright, which landed at #17 allowing them to take Tari Eason.

Similar to last season there were few moves made, mostly those on the margins, except for one. With the Rockets trading Eric Gordon to the Clippers for John Wall and a protected 1st round swap option. The pick was protected 1-6 and the swap was for the best of the Thunder and the Clippers in the 2023 draft, adding another 1st round pick to the Rockets assets.

Despite another slow rebuilding season, Rockets fans were given something to look forward to. Their picks from the 2021 draft were showing flashes of potential, especially Sengun, who was establishing himself as the best player on the team in just his second season.

Year 3 – 2023-24

The Rockets again had one of the worst records in the league but due to poor lottery luck fell out of the top three but still ended up with their first pick being #4 overall. With their own pick being high in the lottery they declined the swap option with the Nets and chose Amen Thompson. With their next pick being the swap from the Gordon trade, the Rockets chose the Clippers pick and took Cam Whitmore #20.

Despite still being a young team, general manager Rafael Stone was always looking for pieces to add to compliment the team and its future. The vigilance paid off, when in July the Rockets executed a sign and trade for Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks. Trading away Garuba, Christopher, Washington, Martin JR, and second round picks. Taking advantage of a breakdown of the relationship between Brooks and the Grizzlies the Rockets were able to get a high-level rotation wing and not have to give up any significant assets to do so.

By Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=136144692

The Rockets didn’t stop there, acquiring Oladipo back from the Thunder for seconds, then flipping him and a few more seconds to the Grizzlies for big man Steven Adams.

Now 3 full years into the rebuild, we can see the team the Rockets would become start to take shape. Sengun, Eason, Thompson, Smith, and Adams all in place, the Rockets realize now is the time to start making aggressive moves to turn this team into a playoff threat.

Year 4: 2024-25

Coming into the 2024 draft, the Rockets are faced with a minor challenge they haven’t been faced with since starting the rebuild, and that is losing their first-round pick. Now having a high enough record to get the #12 pick in the draft, the protection on the pick they owe the Thunder from the trade to acquire Westbrook rears its head.

Losing a lottery pick is hard for any team, but luckily for the Rockets the Harden trade gave them the Nets 1st round pick outright this season. And with great timing too, the Nets are undergoing a teardown of their own, meaning the Rockets are in line to get a new lottery pick to make up for the one they lost to the Thunder. And with luck from the lottery that pick rose from #9 all the way to #3, allowing them to pick Reed Sheppard.

With the Nets in a rebuild of their own, the 2026 1st round pick and the 2 swaps in 2025 and 2027 the Rockets still own from the Harden trade are very alluring assets. So much so that the Nets themselves were willing to trade for 2 of them back. In June the Rockets traded the 2026 pick and removed the swap on the 2025 pick in exchange for the Suns 2025 pick, 2027 pick, and a swap on their 2029 pick. Putting them in prime position to make an offer for Kevin Durant or Devin Booker, two stars on the Suns.

Nothing else of note was done during the regular season transaction wise. Happy to wait to use the Suns picks and their own wealth of young talent to make a splash move, the Rockets waited for the right opportunity.

Year 5; 2025-26 What the Future Holds

That opportunity would come in July, when in a seven-team trade, the Rockets would trade for Kevin Durant from the Suns in exchange for the Suns 2025 first round pick, former #2 overall pick Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks. To free up salary they dumped Whitmore to Washington for some seconds, and as a result they were able to get Clint Capela from the Suns as well. Adding the future Hall of Famer Durant was the move that pushed this team from a young rebuilding team into a contender with expectations to win now.

Conclusion

Looking at the results of the Harden, Covington, Westbrook, and Gordon trades from 2020 and 2021, we can track those picks and the players they became or were subsequently traded for to show the significant impact they have on the current Rockets team. Notably, 5 players—Durant, Sengun, Sheppard, Eason, and Capela—are all integral to their regular 9-man rotation, each having joined the team as a direct result of those crucial trades.

As we analyze these trades, it’s evident that they have not only filled roster spots but have also established a core of a team competing at a high level in the league. The three trades have effectively built the majority of this team’s rotation, demonstrating the success of strategic planning and foresight by management. Furthermore, there are still very worthwhile assets available for the future, such as the highly coveted 2027 Nets 1st round swap, which could potentially yield a top draft pick, along with the two picks from the Suns in 2027 and 2029, positioning the Rockets favorably for continued development and potential expansion of their young talent.

This roadmap of assets and talent is a testament to the strategic vision of the organization and promises an exciting future ahead for the Rockets

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