This list isn’t a complete list of potential free agents. I excluded players like LeBron James, O.G. Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam who are considered likely to re-sign with their current teams. And players whose decisions I don’t believe will have much of an impact.

Superstar

• Paul George
  • The top free agent this offseason, George is expected to receive a max extension, possibly from the 76ers, the Magic, or the Clippers. The contract’s duration is in question due to George’s age (34), but the focus is on his next two superstar-level seasons. The 76ers, with ample cap space, hope to capitalize on this window alongside Embiid. There are rumors about the Clippers’ hesitance to offer a full max, potentially opening the door for the 76ers to make a strong push for George. It’s likely he will stay with the Clippers or join the 76ers, either through free agency or a sign-and-trade deal.

Star

• DeMar DeRozan
  • At age 34, DeRozan is most likely looking to secure his last big contract before the over 38 rule impacts him. Negotiations with the Bulls ended inconclusively during the season, indicating that he is valuing his situation from a basketball standpoint as well as the contract money, opening up his market to a few teams who can make sign and trade deals to attempt to push themselves out of the bottom of the playoffs and into contention. A team like the Lakers or Kings, for example, rumored a few years ago to be interested in DeRozan, can offer multiple picks as well as matching salary, potentially enticing the Bulls to agree to a sign and trade. DeRozan can also push the scales in his favor by telling the Bulls he won’t resign and to get what they can for him early. There is always the possibility that the 76ers strike out on George and look for option #2. While I don’t like the fit due to DeRozan’s lack of enticing complementary skills next to Embiid, it is still a possibility. Some of the cap space teams with young stars looking to capitalize as soon as possible could also throw their hats in the ring to sign or sign and trade for DeRozan. I think that would be a bad idea due to the fit issues mentioned before and his aging curve, but I’ve seen GMs make bad moves in the name of getting better right away or saving their jobs in the past before. Due to the deal not being done with the Bulls during the regular season and potential fit issues with the younger teams with cap space, I believe DeRozan will be signed and traded to a new team, an older team that has been languishing near the bottom of the playoffs for the last few years but can’t make a run at George or trade for someone who could fit better.

Starter

• James Harden
  • This offseason is challenging for Harden given the Clippers’ focus on resigning George and the uncertainty surrounding the team’s future. His free agency outlook may lead to him facing market pressure, but potential options include the Magic, Lakers, or a sign-and-trade team. His willingness these past few stops to change aspects of his game could be enticing to a team looking to improve around already established talent. I would be surprised if he gets significant starter money offer from anyone outside of a sign and trade.

• Klay Thompson
  • The Warriors have non-guarantees on Paul and Looney’s contracts, both I believe they will use, and can use that cap space to make a big offer to Thompson. Just because they can doesn’t mean they will, maybe the Warriors see one more opportunity to retool around Curry while he is still an all-nba player and use that space to get someone better than Thompson or move Wiggins to the three and start Kuminga over him at the four. Maybe Thompson thinks the Warriors are done as a contending team no matter what moves they make and decided to look elsewhere. He will certainly have suiters, a forward sized player who can shoot off ball and hold up decently against other 3s and smaller 4s is a valuable player. The Magic come to mind as a team that desperately needs off ball shooting and can cover up any bad defensive matchups, The Thunder as well could look to make a trade with their wealth of picks and some expiring contracts to give the Warriors some salary relief. However, I believe the Warriors will resign Thompson at the number he wants or extend the years out at a smaller number to give him more guaranteed money. I believe the Warriors will be happy to let him play out his last few years and retire a Warrior with Curry.

• Isaiah Hartenstein
  • Hartenstein stepped up to solidifying his spot as the number one center in the Knicks rotation. However, due to the oversaturation of centers on the market if you’re not one of the elite few all-nba centers you’re probably going to get squeezed by the market. While it’s a bad thing for Hartenstein, its great news for the Knicks who will have to give out a large contract to Anunoby as well, meaning any salary relief they can get they will welcome. I believe Hartenstein will resign with the Knicks for a bit under market value for a starting center, but I don’t see any better option for him unless a team really likes what he showed at the end of this season and the playoffs.

• Nicolas Claxton
  • Another victim of the tight center market, but with the added caveat of the Net’s potentially deciding to go into a full rebuild and being much stingier with the salaries they give out for the next few years. However, another team who needs some defense at the center position could make a pass at him, hoping his disappointing 2023-2024 season was a fluke. Outside of that option I believe he is going to resign with the Nets on low started money, with a few unlikely incentives and maybe a half or non-guaranteed last year to make a trade more enticing.

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
  • Similarly to Thompson, a forward sized player who can shoot off ball and defend their position always has value in the league. The Nuggets will have a hard time resigning him, but I don’t think they have a choice because of how important his skill set is to the team and the lack of suitable replacements. He could get attention from a team looking to add off ball shooting without sacrificing defense like the 76ers or the Magic, however they would have to blows the Nuggets out of the water with their offer making them unable to compete monetarily. The Nuggets shouldn’t let KCP get away over a few million dollars over the length of the contract. I believe KCP will resign with the Nuggets, they are still a contending team and they can still offer him starter money.

Rotation

• De’Anthony Melton
  • An enticing skill set limited by bad injury luck. His next team is going to be determined by the 76ers success in the free agent market. If they do really well they won’t be able to afford to give him a contract, if not they will most likely prioritize resigning him. If he’s not back with the 76ers his skill set makes him a fit on a large number of teams. Any team that has a bit of space, or even the MLE could make a run at him, potentially driving up his market.
• Derrick Jones Jr
  • His good shooting season has rocketed him up the free agent board this offseason, taking him from a minimum signing last year to probably getting around the MLE this year. As mentioned before being able to hit open shots off ball and defend your position as a forward is a very valuable skill set. I expect the Mavericks to face still competition for him on the market.
• Malik Monk
  • Any team looking for a guard who can shoot and can cover for his defensive weaknesses will be interested in how much the Kings are willing to pay to keep Monk. The first team that comes to mind is the Magic, who have a large amount of cap space and could miss out on a few better free agents due to the 76ers. If they miss out on others, I could see the Magic making an offer at starter money that the Kings can’t beat.
• Jonas Valanciunas
  • A bad fit with his current team stylistically and a tight center market don’t bode well for Valanciunas. I expect he will be back with the Pelicans, the only question I have is for how much? I could see it both ways, the Pelicans overvaluing a current member of their team or the Pelicans ready the tea leaves of the market and undervaluing him, daring him to find a better offer.
• Nicolas Batum
  • Despite heavy indications he was going to retire at the end of the year, a good playoff performance with the 76ers seems to have convinced him to take a look at his options on free agency. Similarly to Melton, if the 76ers have a good free agency he won’t be back, if they don’t, he will likely be slightly overpaid to return to the 76ers. I expect he will find a rotation spot at around or slightly below the MLE, as he showed he still has value to a team with his ability to shoot and defend, but which team is the biggest question I have.
• Caleb Martin
  • With the Heat running up against a massive tax bill, a high-level rotation/spot starter level of player like Martin could become a cap casualty of this Heat team. However, with rumblings the Butler may want out, the Heat may be in a situation where they can move off of Butler’s money and try to compete around Adebayo and Herro. Leaving room for the Heat to offer the MLE and a potential starting spot to Martin.