Lakers

On paper there seems to be no chance the Laker’s can win this series, but there’s a reason games are played on the court and not decided on paper. If I was a decision maker with this Lakers team, I would want to play as aggressive as possible coming out of the gate. Similarly to the way the Lakers played in the Grizzlies and Warriors series last year, you want to come out with everything you have and try to steal game one in Denver so you can take game two off and come back to LA with an even series. That means specifically James needs to be on his absolute A game. He needs to be the one guarding Jokic and he needs to be using his basketball IQ to take advantage of any hole Denver gives him to attack.

Similarly to the end of their last series, playing one of either Hachimura or James as the individual matchup on Jokic the entire game and putting Davis on Gordon or Watson and completely ignoring them to provide immediate rim protection and help against Jokic in the post or on a drive. Dare Gordon and Watson to shoot any open three they want, if they have a five for eight game from three, tip your hat and try again next game, but in the Lakers situation with so little you can do to gain any advantage against the Nuggets offense you have to aggressively bite at any opportunity you get.

On offense the Lakers need to be similarly aggressive, since the All-Star break the Lakers have been playing a more offensively focused backcourt with Russell a Reaves while bringing Dinwiddie off the bench. With those two being your only shooters you want them to be off ball as much as you can, to present them as a shooting threat, so James should handle the majority of the playmaking and creation duties. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have one of the better James defenders in the league with Gordon, so using quick and immediate high actions like screens and handoffs to force rotations far away from the basket and potentially get James a matchup against Murray or Porter JR. From there James can use his physicality to back them down and pull in the help defenders where he can either make the quick pass out to ideally Russell or Reaves with an advantage against a recovering defender or Hachimura and Davis who can attack if there is a lane or swing the ball to Reaves or Russell on the weak side to potentially attack while the defense is still over shifted to James. They can also run secondary actions behind the ball like flare screens or back screens with Russell or Reaves to potentially get them open for a three using James’s gravity with the ball in the post to pull the screeners defender too far into the paint to recover in time.

Nuggets

There is not much to go over in terms of strategy or game planning. The Nuggets continue to be an incredibly well-oiled machine that was very difficult to stop during the regular season, and I expect the same during the playoffs. The only thing that could worry me is shot making. If Porter JR and Gordon don’t have it from three during this series it could open up a path for the Lakers to bunch up the paint and defend from inside out, stopping the Nuggets off ball cutting and back screen actions by having one or two people sitting at the rim ready to give a good contest. However, it’s very unlikely both will have very poor shooting series at the same time and even then, I still believe Jokic would be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat and out scheme the Lakers to create advantages for himself and others. I expect the Lakers to come out strong and physical in game 1, so being ready for it, and not overreacting are important. The Lakers need 4 games to win the series, if they steal one with gimmick and incredible performances from James or Davis, don’t overreact and change to stop the Lakers, keep on playing Nuggets basketball and trust in the scheme and in Jokic to win the following games.

Who do I think will win?

The Nuggets. I have very little doubt the Nuggets will move on to the second round. As long as Jokic stays healthy they will always have an advantage on offense and the Lakers don’t have one player who is able to hold up in the post against Jokic, necessitating bending the defense which opens up passing lanes and other advantages that Jokic has shown he is smart enough to find and exploit time and time again. If the Lakers get extremely lucky, there is a path to win the series through poor shooting by the Nuggets and James creating advantages against mismatches in the post. But it’s hard to count on a team receiving that kind of luck for one game let alone 4.