Heat

With Butler missing at least the beginning of this series per current reporting the Heat need everyone else to step up and fill the playmaking gap he will leave behind, mainly Adebayo and Herro. It won’t be easy with the Celtics able to play 4 very good perimeter defenders at the same time, making it very difficult for anyone to create advantages against them. To create those advantages the Heat should try and run as much as they can. Run off makes and misses and try to force turnovers, especially when Brown and White have the ball in their hands. The Celtics great perimeter defense won’t be able to affect the game the same way as they can in the half court.

The Celtics pose a significant offensive threat with the ability to have five players who can effectively attack off the ball. This forces the opposing team to match up their weakest defender against a strong offensive player. Typically, the Heat have used a zone defense in similar situations to cover up their defensive weaknesses. However, with Butler sidelined, they may have to play Jaquez JR or Jovic a lot more minutes, both of whom are subpar defenders, alongside Herro and Rozier. This would stretch the limits of the zone defense, as it would be challenging to hide three below-average defenders. To counter the Celtics’ primary lineup, the Heat could instruct the on-ball defender to hedge the play towards the baseline and provide strong-side overhelp defense to force mid-range jumpers. This strategy aims to exploit the Celtics’ lack of a proficient passer who can effectively distribute the ball to the open man on the opposite side of the court. While this plan is easier said than done, the Heat must execute near-perfect basketball to win this series.

Celtics

The theory of the case from the beginning of the season has panned out beautifully. As long as the Celtics are healthy, they can play 5 credible on ball creators and five good defenders on the floor at the same time, forcing teams into mismatches trying to guard them and giving them nowhere to exploit on the other end. That doesn’t guarantee they will win, the game still needs to be played and the Celtics should keep a few things in mind to avoid disaster. An easy way for the Heat to crack the Celtics defense is to cause turnovers and run in transition as much as they can, for how great the Celtics are guarding in the half court they could lose that advantage if the Heat are able to create mismatches and quick opportunities before the Celtics are able to fully deploy their defense. With Brown and White at times being loose with their handle, there is a chance the Celtics could give the Heat a massive break and allow them to not have the attack their well equip half-court defense. Taking care of the ball and being meaningful with their attacks can prevent this and force the Heats bad defenders into compromised positions against the Celtic’s lineups with four or five credible on ball creators.

Who do I think will win?

The Celtics. It would be hard for the Celtics to lose this series and the only way they wouldn’t be advancing is if via self-inflicted wounds or injuries. There is little the Heat can do especially without Butler for a significant amount of this series to really give themselves an advantage unless it involves capitalizing on the Celtics mistakes. If the Celtics can stay in control and meaningful in their decisions, there should be little resistance the heat can provide.