76ers

With Embiid coming back from injury at the end of the season, hopes are high for a repeat of the excellent performance he had before the injury. However, history shows that will probably not be the case. Not just because we’re not sure Embiid is going to be 100% at the beginning of the series, but Embiid has a history of very disappointing playoff showings that fall far short of his regular season performances. Due to the 76ers seeding they put themselves in a bad position, with their first round series being against a team that matches up pretty well against them in the Knicks. Embiid will face a rigorous physical challenge in this series. Thibodeau is renowned for pushing his teams to exceed their limits, and this squad is tailored to embrace that mentality. Should Embiid be unprepared for such an intense level of play, the Knicks could effectively dominate the 76ers in the paint and on the offensive boards.

With the Knicks offense being so heliocentric not having someone who can guard Brunson on the perimeter and deny him getting to his spot can be a large problem. Especially because Brunson loves forcing switches into mismatches and attacking those mismatches off the dribble, the biggest mismatches ironically are probably the two highest minute players on the 76ers in Maxey and Embiid. If the 76ers hope to slow down the Knicks offense they need to figure out how to avoid those advantage matchups, whether through pre-switching, blitzing the ball, or hard hedging. One potential approach is to maintain the status quo. The 76ers could opt to allow Brunson to freely navigate the offensive end, while focusing on exploiting his defensive vulnerabilities. By deploying both Maxey and Oubre in the backcourt, the team can compel Brunson to defend players who possess the ability to drive past him, or to mark larger opponents capable of capitalizing on the matchup through well-timed movement and physical play. There is the possibility that the considerable minutes logged in the regular season, coupled with the limited on-ball creation around him, could lead to fatigue, diminishing his effectiveness when facing Maxey or Embiid on the court.

Knicks

Without Randle and with Anunoby limited due to injuries, the Knicks are going to have to rely heavily on Brunson’s on ball creation in this series. Fortunately, the 76ers have shown vulnerabilities in perimeter defense, creating favorable opportunities for Brunson to exploit. By pulling Embiid out onto the floor and challenging him off the dribble, Brunson can capitalize on potential defensive weaknesses, especially considering Embiid’s post-injury endurance. Targeting Maxey is another strategic option. It’s essential to test Embiid’s defensive capabilities in open space before considering alternative approaches, leveraging Brunson’s skill set to the fullest. Following the theme of testing Embiid, the Knick’s front court players need to push him physically. On the offensive and defensive boards, whenever he enters the post, and when he tries to face up and drive.

Who do I think will win?

The Knicks. There are too many questions surrounding Embiid’s health, endurance, and past playoff performances for me to confidently say he will be the best player in this series. And with the matchup advantages the Knicks have Embiid needs to be playing at that level all series for the 76ers to pull it out. It’ll be interesting to see how they try and stop Brunson, unless they find the perfect strategy I don’t think they’ll be able to do much to slow him down.