The Cavs looking to make up for the disappointing exit to last year’s playoffs and the Magic looking to show that their regular season performance wasn’t a fluke. Despite the different goals and perceptions of these teams, they are surprisingly well matched against each other. Let me explain:

Cavs

After their disappointing loss to the Knicks in the first round of last year’s playoffs, the Cavs were able to shore up their biggest weak point, shooting from the forward position. The Knicks were able to blitz the ball and force the pass on the short roll to Mobley or Allen, but neither of them could make the Knicks pay due to their lack of shooting and a lack of shooting surrounding then, causing the Cavs offense to get stuck in the mud. Now, with the addition of Strus and the emergence of Merill as a good shooter at the forward spot, that old strategy is going to be much less viable than it was last playoffs.

However, the Magic still pose a unique problem for the Cavs by playing both Suggs and Harris at the guard spots, giving the Magic the ability to guard Mitchell and Garland straight up and keep their bigs on the back line. Despite the upgrades to the Cavs that would mitigate past years’ weakness, they still find themselves in a matchup when Allen and Mobley need to be able to make plays with the ball in their hands on the short roll. If the Cavs bigs can make good decisions without too much hesitation, I think they can cause havoc forcing the Magic wings to over help and leave shooters open on the wings. The Cavs are in a good position defensively due to the Magics’ heavy reliance on Banchero to create advantages, but the question becomes, can he create those same advantages against Mobley? If Mobley can hold up in that matchup, the Magic will be forced to go to Franz Wagner as the primary initiator or play a playmaker guard. Both situations which benefit the Cavs greatly.

Magic

Similarly to the Cavs, the Magic defense is put together well to stop what the Cavs want to do. Since they started playing Suggs and Harris together in the starting lineup their starting lineup has jumped in plus minus to over +10. With the brunt of the Cavs offense coming from their two guards Suggs and Harris have very important roles to play in this series, specifically can they get over screens and keep up with the Cavs guards in isolation? If the Cavs guards can’t create those advantages, it will drag their offense into the mud and turn the series into a grudge match, exactly what the Magic want. However, there are a few questions Mosley will have to answer in his first trip to the playoffs, specifically with the bench. Similarly to the impact the Cavs guard will have on this series, Banchero’s ability to create advantages against the defense, specifically Mobley will be the key to the Magic’s offense. If Banchero can force the defense to bend in order to stop him that’ll open up large holes, especially on the perimeter and give the Magic opportunities to work against the Cavs weak perimeter defense at ana advantage.

One of the Magic’s strong points this season has been their bench play, specifically the bench lineups with Isaac and Mo Wagner. But with the playoffs rolling around teams increase the minutes of their starters and stars especially and shorten their rotations, usually only going 7 or 8 deep. With the Magic often playing 10 or even 11 deep during the regular season who will Mosley excise from the rotation? Is he going to try and keep both Isaac’s and Mo Wagner’s minutes together, or spread them out? Will he play both Isaac and Mo Wagner in the frontcourt, or will one of them be pushed out? I believe the rotation at the end of the series will be determined largely by the play of Carter. If Carter is hitting his threes and playing well defensively, he will probably garner the lionshare of minutes at center and force Mosley to really choose either Issac or Mo Wagner to take the rest of those minutes, depending on the identity he wants the team to have. A defensive identity will include Isaac while an offensive one will include Mo Wagner.

Who do I think will win?

I think it will be close and will be determined by the play of the Cav’s guards offensively, especially Mitchell, the Magic’s guards defensively, Banchero offensively, and Mobley defensively. If the Cav’s guards can create advantages on the offensive end against the Magic’s guards, they’ll be able to take advantage of the help coming in from the wings. If not, the Magic can use their length and athleticism to force the Cavs into uncomfortable positions and create missed shots and turnovers they can turn into fast break opportunities. If Banchero can take the Magic’s offense on his back and be able to create advantages against the Cavs defense, specifically Mobley and force them out of position to provide help he can set up open looks for his teammates. Even though they aren’t the best shooters, they can still be counted on to hit those open looks.