The 3-6 match up in the West, this series comes off the back of a surprisingly successful and a surprisingly disappointing year from these two teams. An interesting mix of strengths and weaknesses, I can see the outcome of this series going well for either team. Here’s why;

Timberwolves

Coming off a strong 2023-24 season, the pressure is on, not just as a team, but for individual narratives as well. Will Rudy Gobert’s elite rim protection be able to hold up against the larger scrutiny that comes with playoff basketball? Will KAT’s defense be the weak link that breaks the chain? Will Anthony Edward’s rise to being the best player in a playoff series? An opportunity for many questions to be answered, especially against a team in the Suns that have high-end talent, but a large drop off afterward. That high-end talent focused mostly on offense will put a lot of stress on the Timberwolves defense. The strengths of their defense, mainly Gobert, also come with weaknesses, specifically long two range. It’s a great scheme when you can force opponents to take a large volume of long twos due to Goberts presence at the rim, but what happens when you play against two of the 5 players in the league who can make those shots at a high level? Do you bring Gobert to the level of the ball to hedge on screens? That lets you heavily contest any long twos, but leaves KAT or Reid to defend the back line, two very weak defenders. Do you continue to use drop coverage? Keeping Gobert near the rim to shut the faucet, but give up lightly contested long twos to Booker and Durant. Do you try and preemptively switch to keep Gobert out of the action? If done well, it could keep Gobert on the backline and apply pressure near the screen, but if not it could leave one of the Suns stars with an open three or an open lane to the rim.

An interesting choice, I believe it will be the key decision in the series, and whether or not it works will determine the outcome to a significant degree.

Suns

An injury riddled 2023-24 season birthes a sixth seed placement for the Suns, narrowly avoiding the play-in and narrowly avoiding Denver. Their efforts grant them a first round series against the Timberwolves, which could turn out to be a blessing for the Suns. The Timberwolves surged to the third seed behind the best defense in the league by a large margin, mostly because of Goverts efforts protecting the rim. Luckily, the Suns have two of the best mid range shooters in the league, which can severely negate the impact of Gobert shutting off the rim by forcing him out on the floor to contest their jumpers. Which, if it works, can open up the rim, forcing KAT or Reid to slide to the backline to replace Gobert, leaving an opening for one of the other three ballhandlers to attack the weakpoint. Simply put, use the primary action to force Gobert out on the floor, kick the ball to one of your other ballhandlers to run a secondary play with Gobert stuck on the perimeter, so you can attack KAT, Reid, or Anderson. However, the Timberwolves could decide to play the numbers game and keep Gobert in a drop, giving up the lightly contested long twos. In that case, you just have to pray and believe in your stars to come up big.

Conclusion

You’ll notice I spoke about only one end of the floor for both teams because I believe the decision each team makes on those ends of the floor, specifically the Timberwolves will have the largest impact on the course of the series. Can the Timberwolves limit the damage from long two while keeping Gobert on the back line? Can the Suns open up the paint by dragging him out to hedge again the long two? I can’t wait to see which of these teams gets going and how they do it.