Coming into the 2021 NBA Draft, there was no concensus number 1 pick. Draft gurus had a three player top tier, depending on who you asked any of these player could have gone number one:

Paolo Banchero: Physically stout forward from Duke, a dangerous offensive weapon with the ball in his hands. Even with questions about his defense, his upside on the offensive end made him a no doubt top three prospect.

Chet Holmgren: Lengthy big man from Gonzaga who showed serious potential hitting the three and some flashes with the ball in his hands. A prolific shot blocker in college, using his athleticism and wingspan to swallow up rim attempts. Questions about his weight and strength plagued him in the pre-draft process. But it didn’t deter many analysts from having him in the running with Paolo and Jabari for the top pick

Jabari Smith: Athletic forward from Auburn, who many defensive advocates salavated over. Also showed flashes hitting from beyond the arc as well. With defensive versatility being so valuable in today’s NBA, it’s no wonder he was in the running for the number one pick.

Ultimately, after playing their cards close to their chest, the Magic chose Paolo number one, leaving the Thunder with a difficult choice. The Thunder franchise has had only two number two overall picks in the NBA Draft before this one, the pre Thunder SuperSonics chose Gary Payton in 1990 and Kevin Durant in 2007, both players made the NBA 75th Anniversary Team. Either player the Thunder chose would have high expectations from the jump. That player was Chet Holmgren.

2022 – 23 Season Injury

Expectations were high from the start, many fans specualting on his immediate impact for the team and his long-term improvement plan. The hype was real, which made it all the more devastating when Holmgren injured his foot during a pro-am game before the season started. Being ruled out for his entire rookie season, the talk turned from high hopes and lofty goals to more morbid topics, like his lengthy recovery process and if the injury would impact his long term game.

Despite not demanding as much attention as he did in the ofseason before his rookie year, he built some of the hype back up with an impressive summer league performance. Showing off his length and athleticism on defense, giving more legitimacy to the high expectations that were placed on him as a defender before the draft. Concerningly, he took few three-pointers, and they were falling at a very low percentage 16.7% in Vegas. Despite the poor shooting from beyond the arc, most were optimistic coming into his ‘official’ rookie season, but more reserved than they were originally.

2023 – 24 Regular Season

Entering the 2023 – 24 regular season, Holmgren filled a large hole in the young Thunder team. With Shai entering the all nba conversation last season, Jalen Williams showing huge flashes as an on ball creator and scorer, and Josh Giddey being best as a passer and conductor on offense. There was little room for another player who needed the ball in his hands in the starting lineup. With Holmgren’s unimpressive shooting performance in summer league, many were wondering what role he would play in the rotation.

Our questions about his role were answered in the first game of the regular season, where Holmgren made 2 of his 3 three-pointers with a +14 in a 20-point win over the Bulls. Playing mostly out of the action on offense with the starting 5, Holmgren’s role was mostly limited to spacing the floor and sneaking in for rebpunds, with the occasional on-ball rep. Despite the small role, his impact was immense. Giving the Thunder a reliable stretch big option who could open the floor for the small-small pick and pop actions that they used to get Shai and Jalen into the lane. As the season went on, the offensive rhythm the Thunder found was incredibly difficult to stop, helping Shai jump into the MVP conversation by the all-star break and helping to propel them to one of the top records in the West. For Holmgren specifically, it wasn’t offense alone where he provided an underappreciated impact. His defense quickly rounded into form. His unique combination of shot contest percentage (47.4%) and the low percentage opponents shoot when he contests (52.8%) cement him as a plus defender even as a rookie, a very rare feat for a big man.

With his shooting rounding into form, sitting at 39% on 5.1 attempts per 36 as of the making of this article, and his defense continuing to impress, the Thunder found a true basketball unicorn. After spending years having to choose between good offensive but bad defensive or good defensive but bad offensive centers, getting a guy who is both a good offensive and good defensive center is great, Holmgren also being in his official rookie season is just the icing on the cake. His unique skill set fitting in so well with the Tunder’s unique play style is a match made in heaven. I can’t wait to see how this team and Holmgren grow over the next 5-6 seasons.